Commentary: With violent crackdowns, is Myanmar passing the point of no return?
SINGAPORE: The Asean Foreign Ministers have weighed in heavily on developments in Myanmar, emphasising values of democracy, respect for man rights and the need for the grouping to achieve a common position.
Foreign Government minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned on Tuesday (Mar two) that failure by the group to reach a common position on matters in this region would mean private fellow member states will exist forced to country their ain position.
He understands that the situation in Myanmar has speedily deteriorated, with at least eighteen deaths lone on Sunday equally soldiers reinforced law and live ammunition was fired into crowds in places across the country. Over a thou people take likewise been arrested, including political leaders, journalists and artists.
And observers watching events unfold know something must exist done before Myanmar becomes a powder keg for further violence.
READ: Commentary: Has Myanmar coup sparked rethinking on non-interference amidst ASEAN countries?
MILITARY Notwithstanding IN Accuse
But the distressing truth is, regardless of international pressure and heightened media scrutiny, the Myanmar armed forces lone holds the keys to how events will play out.
The military is the unmarried nigh powerful establishment in the land that has ruled the country for decades.
With 516,000 personnel including over 400,000 in active service, it was ranked the fourth most powerful war machine in Southeast Asia by the 2022 Global Firepower Index. Together with the Myanmar police, information technology has a monopoly on force in the state.
Commander-in-chief Senior Full general Min Aung Hlaing has also causeless all powers of the authorities - executive, legislative and judiciary – in forming the State Administrative Council (SAC), which Min Aung Hlaing chairs.
Still, things are getting out of mitt where curfews and limits on gatherings take been imposed to no avail, leading security forces to use h2o cannons, rubber bullets and now, live ammunition, to disperse protesters.
LOSING LEGITIMACY
The violent crackdown on Sunday has lost the armed forces legitimacy. This is a new evolution.
Although its part in national politics all these years has been controversial, the military had been seen by many Myanmarese as defenders of the state'due south sovereignty and public safety, in protecting them confronting perceived terrorist attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, upwards until the insurrection.
This rapid deterioration has hardened the stances of protesters and is leading the state of affairs to spiral into an all-or-zero-at-all challenge on which side prevails: Aung Sang Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) or the armed services and coup supporters.
The loss of lives, apply of violence and intimidation tactics are souring sentiments.
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It was bad enough that protesters had regarded charges against ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi - from illegal possession of walkie talkies, violation of natural disaster law, and almost recently the publication of data causing fright or alert, and breaching of telecommunications law requiring licenses for equipment – every bit frivolous excuses for locking up a national icon.
They think the military may be preventing Aung San Suu Kyi from ever assuming political office once more or running in elections. After all, the war machine pursued a similar strategy by detaining her for almost xv years.
READ: Commentary: How Myanmar's military leveraged the COVID-xix pandemic in its ability grab
The lack of a timeframe for elections to be pursued has too been glaring, stoking suspicions the military is only concerned with belongings onto power despite reassurances they are interim in accordance with the 2008 constitution.
Even the new election commission established in early Feb is geared towards investigating balloter fraud allegation, with arrests made of the previous ballot commission that oversaw the Nov 2022 polls.
Myanmar is moving further away from normalcy. Since the coup, thousands of ceremonious servants, railway workers, doctors, nurses, teachers and others have joined or supported the protests, with many arrested.
Banks, individual healthcare and other services have shuttered offices or slowed operations to comply with restrictions on crowds.
READ: Commentary: To be president? What Myanmar armed services leader's endgame may be
A PATH TOWARDS RECONCILIATION
All is not lost. In its attempt to garner wider public support, the military has inducted leaders from the ethnic minority groups and a wide range of political parties to be part of its SAC.
The list includes Mahn Nyein Maung, formerly from the Karen National Union, Saw Daniel, a former vice-chairman of the Kayah State Democratic Party, along with Thein Nyunt and Khin Maung Swe, co-founders of the National Democratic force, a splinter grouping of the NLD.
It knows its ability to run the unabridged country has been severely hampered past the ongoing civil disobedience.
READ: Commentary: US sanctions on Myanmar volition not reverse the coup
The violence must cease simply compromise will exist needed from both sides. Protesters against the insurrection have argued that the international community should reject the junta and refrain from dealing with it, merely that may be a myopic arroyo. The armed services will not give up without a strong fight.
A complete give up with a reversion to the pre-coup status quo may exist wishful thinking.
Information technology is admittedly difficult to imagine a dialogue between the armed services and the NLD leadership at this bespeak. Here, the part of Association of southeast asian nations can be vital.
The stage has been set. The bloc's chairman called for a peaceful resolution through constructive dialogue, during that same meeting of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers on Tuesday. Members also highlighted the importance of a return to peace and normalcy.
While Western countries and international institutions impose sanctions on the military, ASEAN must engage both the military and the NLD leadership to facilitate some sort of a political arrangement.
READ: Commentary: ASEAN tin can do amend on Myanmar this time
An contained commission to investigate claims of voting irregularities could give the armed forces a face-saving way out, if both sides tin can hold to work towards a peaceful resolution of the impasse.
I would likewise non dominion out the possibility of fresh elections to be held under the supervision of international observers, including the United Nations, Association of southeast asian nations and others mutually agreed upon by both the armed services and the NLD.
Dr Nehginpao Kipgen is a Political Scientist, Associate Professor and Executive Manager at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Jindal School of International Affairs, O P Jindal Global Academy. He is the author of 3 books on Myanmar, including Democratization of Myanmar.
Source: https://cnalifestyle.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/commentary-violent-crackdowns-myanmar-passing-point-no-return-298176
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